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Sizing frequency control ancillary service (FCAS) requirements is crucial forthe reliable operation of power systems amid a continuous influx of variablerenewable energy (VRE) generation. Reserve sizing is especially pertinent forthe Philippine grids due to an expected transition to new FCAS classificationsestablished by its Grid Code. In lieu of the existing deterministicformulation, this work proposes a dynamic approach for sizing secondary andtertiary reserves that accounts for the stochasticity and variability of loaddemand and VRE. We propose a method where historical power imbalances werecalculated and clustered according to the time and day of week they occurred.The conditional probabilities of forecast and noise errors were characterizedusing kernel density estimation. Recursive convolution was performed to obtainthe total reserve requirement probability distribution. The method was testedon Visayas grid's historical system operation data and used target reliabilitylevels on the error distributions to size upward and downward reserve needs.Finally, the methodology was extended to demonstrate through a numericalexperiment that sizing FCAS at temporal resolutions higher than one-hour, e.g.,five-minute, provides the benefit of shrinking the required capacities by asmuch as 86.2\% compared to current deterministic FCAS sizing.

Dynamic Sizing of Frequency Control Ancillary Service Requirements for a Philippine Grid