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Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluenceof 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and(3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that willenable statistical flare and CME forecasting (e.g. eruption probability andtiming, estimation of strength, and CME details, such as speed and magneticfield orientation) similar to weather prediction on Earth.

Towards data-driven modeling and real-time prediction of solar flares and coronal mass ejections