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The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver ofinterannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather eventsand disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximalwarming, El Ni\~no events can be partitioned into 2 types, Eastern Pacific (EP)and Central Pacific (CP) events. The type of an El Ni\~no has a major influenceon its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the sameareas on the globe. Here we show that the zonal difference $\Delta T_{WP-CP}$between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial westernPacific and central Pacific gives an early indication of the type of anupcoming El Ni\~no: When at the end of a year, $\Delta T_{WP-CP}$ is positive,an event in the following year will be probably an EP event, otherwise a CPevent. Between 1950 and present, 3/4 of the EP forecasts and all CP forecastsare correct. When combining this approach with a previously introducedclimate-network approach, we obtain reliable forecasts for both the onset andthe type of an event: at a lead time of about one year, 2/3 of the EP forecastsand all CP forecasts in the regarded period are correct. The combined model hasconsiderably more predictive power than the current operational type forecastswith a mean lead time of about 1 month and should allow early mitigationmeasures.

Forecasting the El Ni\~no type well before the spring predictability barrier