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Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by largeuncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, bestpossible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. Weexplore the variability in estimates of 100-year return value of significantwave height (Hs) over time, for output of WAVEWATCHIII models from 7representative CMIP5 GCMs, and the FIO-ESM v2.0 CMIP6 GCM, for neighbourhoodsof locations east of Madagascar and south of Australia. Non-stationary extremevalue analysis of peaks-over-threshold and block maxima using Bayesianinference provide posterior estimates of return values as a function of time;MATLAB software is provided. There is large variation between return valueestimates from different GCMs, and with longitude and latitude within eachneighbourhood. These sources of uncertainty tend to be larger than that due totypical modelling choices (such as choice of threshold for POT, or block lengthfor BM). However, careful threshold and block length are critical east ofMadagascar, because of the presence of a mixed population of storms there. Thelong 700-year pre-industrial control (piControl) output of the CMIP6 GCM allowsquantification of the apparent inherent variability in return value as afunction of time.

Uncertainties in estimating the effect of climate change on 100-year return value for significant wave height