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New leaders in democratic countries typically enjoy high approval ratingsimmediately after taking office. This phenomenon is called the honeymoon effectand is regarded as a significant political phenomenon; however, its mechanismremains underexplored. Therefore, this study examines how social media usersrespond to changes in political leadership in order to better understand thehoneymoon effect in politics. In particular, we constructed a 15-year Twitterdataset on eight change timings of Japanese prime ministers consisting of 6.6Mtweets and analyzed them in terms of sentiments, topics, and users. We foundthat, while not always, social media tend to show a honeymoon effect at thechange timings of prime minister. The study also revealed that sentiment aboutprime ministers differed by topic, indicating that public expectations varyfrom one prime minister to another. Furthermore, the user base was largelyreplaced before and after the change in the prime minister, and their sentimentwas also significantly different. The implications of this study would bebeneficial for administrative management.

Political Honeymoon Effect on Social Media: Characterizing Social Media Reaction to the Changes of Prime Minister in Japan