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We present estimates for the number of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) forwhich the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) can identify theblack hole ``shadow,'' along with estimates for how many black hole masses andspins the ngEHT can expect to constrain using measurements of horizon-resolvedemission structure. Building on prior theoretical studies of SMBH accretionflows and analyses carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT)collaboration, we construct a simple geometric model for the polarized emissionstructure around a black hole, and we associate parameters of this model withthe three physical quantities of interest. We generate a large number ofrealistic synthetic ngEHT datasets across different assumed source sizes andflux densities, and we estimate the precision with which our defined proxiesfor physical parameters could be measured from these datasets. Under Aprilweather conditions and using an observing frequency of 230~GHz, we predict thata ``Phase 1'' ngEHT can potentially measure $\sim$50 black hole masses,$\sim$30 black hole spins, and $\sim$7 black hole shadows across the entiresky.

Expectations for Horizon-Scale Supermassive Black Hole Population Studies with the ngEHT