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We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 inAustralia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited adiverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineagesof Omicron, further complicated by differences in social distancing behaviourwhich varied over time. Our study delineated distinct phases of theOmicron-associated pandemic stage, and retrospectively quantified the adoptionof social distancing measures, fluctuating over different time periods inresponse to the observable incidence dynamics. We also modelled thecorresponding disease burden, in terms of hospitalisations, intensive care unitoccupancy, and mortality. Supported by good agreement between simulated andactual health data, our study revealed that the nonlinear dynamics observed inthe daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introductionof sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of socialdistancing measures. Our high-resolution model can be used in design andevaluation of public health interventions during future crises.

Persistence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia: The impact of fluctuating social distancing