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A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake will cause widespread damage tonumerous lifelines and infrastructure along the northern US west coast. Thegoal of the presented research is to provide a bottom up estimate of the impacton and subsequent recovery of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake on the USwestern grid to supplement and enhance the expert opinion estimates provided todate. The scope is limited to consideration of shaking damage to utilitysubstation equipment components of a power system model. The analysis utilizesprobabilistic models of damage and recovery for substation power system assets,along with graph techniques for modeling connectivity, and Monte Carlo quasisteady state power flow solutions. The results show that a conservativeestimate of the initial damage and loss of load is approximately 4,000 MW, witha recovery estimate of 230 days.

Toward Models of Impact and Recovery of the US Western Grid from Earthquake Events