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A challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respondto future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make suchpredictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need toaccurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and thebiological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms arethermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heatand water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be capturedwith biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysicalecology have a long history of development and application, their use in globalchange biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasinglyaccessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in thetheory and methods of biophysical models is vital to expand their application.Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand andpredict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival,distribution, and abundance. We illustrate the types of outputs that can begenerated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examplesrange from simple calculations of body temperature to more complex analyses ofspecies' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances,accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currentlylimit the widespread application of biophysical models. We discuss progress andfuture developments that could allow these models to be applied to many speciesacross large spatial extents and timeframes. We highlight how biophysicalmodels are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involvepredicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability andextremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or bioticenvironments.

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: the promise of biophysical ecology