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When evaluating the effect of CO2 changes on the earth's climate, it iswidely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a givenCO2 concentration (IRF2xCO2) is constant and that variances in climatesensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks, or a dependence ofthese feedbacks on the climatological base-state. In this paper, we show thatthe IRF2xCO2 is not constant, but also depends on the climatologicalbase-state, increasing by ~25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by~10% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to stratospheric cooling,implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-statedependence also explains about half of the inter-model spread in IRF2xCO2, aproblem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.

State-dependence of CO2 Forcing and its Implications for Climate Sensitivity