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We empirically analyze a large sample of firm sales growth expectations. Wefind that the relationship between forecast errors and lagged revision isnon-linear. Forecasters underreact to typical (positive or negative) news aboutfuture sales, but overreact to very significant news. To account for thisnon-linearity, we propose a simple framework, where (1) sales growth dynamicshave a fat-tailed high frequency component and (2) forecasters use a simplelinear rule. This framework qualitatively fits several additional features ofdata on sales growth dynamics, forecast errors, and stock returns.

Expectations Formation with Fat-tailed Processes: Evidence from Sales Forecasts