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I derive the probability that a vote cast in an Instant Runoff Votingelection will change the election winner. I phrase that probability in terms ofthe candidates' expected vote totals, and then I estimate its magnitude fordifferent distributions of voter preferences. The result is very similar to theprobability of casting a pivotal vote in a Single-Member District Pluralityelection, which suggests that Instant Runoff Voting does not actually increaseor decrease voters' incentives to vote strategically. The derivation uncovers acounter-intuitive phenomenon that I call "indirect pivotality", in which avoter can cause one candidate to win by ranking some other candidate on theirballot.

The probability of casting a pivotal vote in an Instant Runoff Voting election