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Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19,amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 deathrates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between politicalparty affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs anindividual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death ratesduring the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohioand Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantiallyhigher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared toregistered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in theperiod after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, theexcess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%,higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post-vaccines, the excessdeath rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% ofthe Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess deathrate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats isconcentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes aftervaccines became widely available.

Excess death rates for Republicans and Democrats during the COVID-19 pandemic