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US Institutions with more than $100 million assets under management mustdisclose part of their long positions into the SEC Form 13F-HR on a quarterlybasis. We consider the number of variations in holdings between consecutivereporting periods, and compute imbalances in buying versus selling behaviourfor the assets under consideration. A significant opportunity for profit arisesif an external investor is willing to trade contrarian to the 13F filingsimbalances. Indeed, imbalances capture the amount of information alreadyconsumed in the market and the related trades tend to be inflated by crowdingand herding. Betting on a relatively short-term movement of prices against thesign of imbalances results in a profitable strategy especially when using atime horizon between 21 and 42 trading days (corresponding to 1-2 calendarmonths) after each financial quarter ends.

SEC Form 13F-HR: Statistical investigation of trading imbalances and profitability analysis