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The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On acountry scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known anddistinguishable initial phase, reaching its peak on mid July 2020. However, thedetailed picture is more involved and reflects inter-regional variations in theepidemic dynamics, presumably grounded on socio-demographic, connectivity, andhuman mobility factors. Classifying the regional epidemic curves andidentifying the major hubs of regional COVID-19 spread can contribute towardsdefining an evidence-based risk map for future outbreaks of infectious diseaseswith similar transmissibility properties. In this work, we make a regional wavedecomposition of the initial epidemic phase registered in Guatemala, and we usethe Richards phenomenological model alongside multivariate ordinationtechniques of its estimated model parameters to draw a countrywide picture ofthe first epidemiological wave. By exploring similarities in the model spaceparameters, we traced routes for the disease spread across the country. Weevaluated how well the proposed classification can help to define a regionalrisk hierarchy comprising early stage focal points, major hubs, and secondaryregions of epidemic progression.

COVID-19 Regional Waves and Spread Risk Assessment through the Analysis of the Initial Outbreak in Guatemala