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We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministicintegrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regressionframework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixedeffects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a priordistribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressiveparameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginalprior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretizedoutput of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.

Bayesian Functional Emulation of CO2 Emissions on Future Climate Change Scenarios