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The discovery of gas in Groningen in 1959 has been a massive boon to theDutch economy. From the 1990s onwards though, gas production has led to inducedseismicity. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive exploratory analysis ofthe spatio-temporal earthquake catalogue. We develop a non-parametric adaptivekernel smoothing technique to estimate the spatio-temporal hazard map and tointerpolate monthly well-based gas production statistics. Second- andhigher-order inhomogeneous summary statistics are used to show that the stateof the art rate-and-state models for the prediction of seismic hazard fail tocapture inter-event interaction in the earthquake catalogue. Based on thesefindings, we suggest a modified rate-and-state model that also takes intoaccount changes in gas production volumes and uncertainty in the pore pressurefield.

Exploring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field using adaptive kernel smoothing and inhomogeneous summary statistics