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This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of asimple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. Morespecifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000and 2021, relying on 1,000 regression trees that are constructed based on sixkey macroeconomic variables. This agnostic, purely data driven method delivers(relatively) good outcome prediction performance. Out of sample root meansquare errors (RMSE) systematically beat even the in-sample benchmarkeconometric models. Partial effects of inflation expectations on CPI outcomesare also elicited in the paper. Overall, the results highlight the role ofexpectations for inflation outcomes in advanced economies, even though theirimportance appears to have declined somewhat during the last 10 years.

What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?