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Chemical transport models (CTMs) have been widely used to provideinstructions for the control of ozone (O3) pollution. However, we find largediscrepancies between observation- and model-based urban O3 chemical regimes:volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes over N. China and weak nitrogenoxides (NOx)-limited regimes over S. China in observations, in contrast tosimulations with widespread distributions of strong NOx-limited regimes. Theconflicting O3 evolutions are caused by underestimated urban NOx concentrationsand the possible overestimation of biogenic VOC emissions. Reductions in NOxemissions, in response to regulations, have thus led to an unintendeddeterioration of O3 pollution over N. China provinces, for example, an increasein surface O3 by approximately 7 ppb over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in 2014-2020.The NOx-induced urban O3 changes resulted in an increase in premature mortalityby approximately 3000 cases in 2015-2020.

Large discrepancy between observations and simulations: Implications for urban air quality in China