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Many of the recent works on the profitability of rogue mining strategieshinge on a parameter called $\gamma$ that measures the proportion of the honestnetwork attracted by the attacker to mine on top of his fork. These works, seearXiv:1808.01041 and arXiv.1805.08281, have surmised conclusions based onpremises that erroneously treat $\gamma$ to be constant. In this paper, wetreat $\gamma$ as a stochastic process and attempt to find its distributionthrough a Markov analysis. We begin by making strong assumptions on gamma'sbehaviour and proceed to translate them mathematically in order to apply themin a Markov setting. The aforementioned is executed in two separate occasionsfor two different models. Furthermore, we model the Bitcoin network andnumerically derive a limiting distribution whereby the relative accuracy of ourmodels is tested through a likelihood analysis. Finally, we conclude that evenwith control of 20% of the total hashrate, honest mining is the stronglydominant strategy.

A New Outlook on the Profitability of Rogue Mining Strategies in the Bitcoin Network