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How accurately can behavioral scientists predict behavior? To answer thisquestion, we analyzed data from five studies in which 640 professionalbehavioral scientists predicted the results of one or more behavioral scienceexperiments. We compared the behavioral scientists' predictions to randomchance, linear models, and simple heuristics like "behavioral interventionshave no effect" and "all published psychology research is false." We find thatbehavioral scientists are consistently no better than - and often worse than -these simple heuristics and models. Behavioral scientists' predictions are notonly noisy but also biased. They systematically overestimate how wellbehavioral science "works": overestimating the effectiveness of behavioralinterventions, the impact of psychological phenomena like time discounting, andthe replicability of published psychology research.

Simple models predict behavior at least as well as behavioral scientists