English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Intuitively, one would expect a more skillful forecast if predicting weatheraveraged over one week instead of the weather averaged over one day, andsimilarly for different spatial averaging areas. However, there are fewsystematic studies of averaging and forecast skill with modern forecasts, andit is therefore not clear how much improvement in forecast performance isproduced via averaging. Here we present a direct investigation of averagingeffects, based on data from operational numerical weather forecasts. Data isanalyzed for precipitation and surface temperature, for lead times of roughly 1to 7 days, and for time- and space-averaging diameters of 1 to 7 days and 100to 4500 km, respectively. For different geographic locations, the effects oftime- or space-averaging can be different, and while no clear geographicalpattern is seen for precipitation, a clear spatial pattern is seen fortemperature. For temperature, in general, time averaging is most effective nearcoastlines, also effective over land, and least effective over oceans. Based onall locations globally, time averaging was less effective than one mightexpect. To help understand why time averaging may sometimes be minimallyeffective, a stochastic model is analyzed as a synthetic weather time series,and analytical formulas are presented for the decorrelation time. In effect,while time averaging creates a time series that is visually smoother, it doesnot necessarily cause a substantial increase in the predictability of the timeseries.

Systematic assessment of the effects of space averaging and time averaging on weather forecast skill