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Secondary eyewalls occur in 70% of major tropical cyclones (TCs), and areassociated with rapid changes in storm intensity and rapid broadening of strongwinds. While mechanisms of secondary eyewall formation have been investigatedfrom various perspectives, the explicit conditions on which secondary eyewallsoccur in TCs remain veiled, leaving substantial uncertainties in TC intensityforecast, especially for the most extreme events. In this study, we present asimple diagnostic, in form of a singularity, for secondary eyewall occurrencein TCs. The diagnostic is solely dependent on three basic storm characteristics(the maximum wind speed, the radius of maximum wind, and the latitude) andshown to compare well with satellite observations. It provides a valuable toolto improve the understanding, modeling and risk assessment of secondary eyewallstorms.

Singularity as a diagnostic for secondary eyewall occurrence in tropical cyclones