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There is a strong need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to deal withclimate change. In the power sector, changing the power generation method inthe medium and long term is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Thispaper proposes a long-term energy-mix optimization mod-el to obtain the processof carbon neutrality in the power system. The proposed model models powersupply and demand at an hourly granularity and determines the generationcapacity that minimizes the long-term energy supply cost. Compared with themodels proposed in previous studies, the proposed model can determine theinstalled capacity to maintain the balance of power supply and demand by addingthe capacity of regulation reserve required by fluctuations in the output ofvariable renewable energy as a constraint condition. A Japan energy mixcalculation is reported as a case study of the proposed model. This model canclarify the roadmap to achieving each country's emission reduction target andsupport the government's decision-making.

A Study of Long-term Energy-mix Optimization Model: A Case Study in Japan