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With increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) and ahigher rate of electrification in the society, there will be future challengesin maintaining a continuous balance between electricity supply and demand. Toinvestigate the possibility of different technologies to provide balancingservices, to dimension future balancing services and design technicalrequirements for future balancing services, the future need of balancing powermust first be known. Future power systems are often analysed by performingsimulations capturing the energy produced, consumed or transmitted fordifferent power system components with resolution of one trading period (TP),here called TP energy simulations. However, these simulations do not fullycapture the continuous intra-TP power balance that must be kept at every timeinstance. In this paper, we propose a model to perform high-resolution intra-TPsimulations to estimate the need of balancing power based on TP energysimulations. The model is applied to the Swedish system operator (SO) Svenskakraftn\"at's TP energy simulations of a scenario with high vRES penetration anda highly electrified society in year 2045. The results show that a considerableneed of balancing power will occur frequently, where faster ramping ofcomponents tend to increase the need of balancing power while assuming that thetransmission reliability margin (TRM) is used to net imbalances clearlydecreases the need of balancing power.

Estimating the Future Need of Balancing Power Based on Long-Term Power System Market Simulations