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Mission planners for aircraft operating under threat of detection byground-based radar systems are concerned with the probability of detection.Current path planning methods for such scenarios consider the aircraft pose,radar position, and radar parameters to be deterministic and known. This paperpresents a framework for incorporating uncertainty in these quantities into aradar detection model that is used by a path planner. The developed pathplanner evaluates the radar detection risk in the presence of uncertainties anduses linear covariance analysis to efficiently generate error budgets. Theerror budgets identify the contribution of each source of uncertainty (e.g.,sensor measurement noise, radar position uncertainty) to the overallvariability in the probability of detection. The framework is applied to amodified visibility graph path planner that uses the detection risk and itsvariability to calculate path adjustments, which maintain the detection riskbelow a specified threshold. The results show that the framework is effectiveat providing actionable information to the mission planner that improves thefinal planned path and reduces the detection risk.

Path Planning with Uncertainty for Aircraft Under Threat of Detection from Ground-Based Radar