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A large proportion of Africa's infrastructure is yet to be built. Where andhow these new buildings are constructed matters since today's decisions willlast for decades. The resulting morphology of cities has lasting implicationsfor a city's energy needs. Estimating and projecting these needs has alwaysbeen challenging in Africa due to the lack of data. Yet, given the sweepingurbanisation expected in Africa over the next three decades, this obstacle mustbe overcome to guide cities towards a trajectory of sustainability andresilience. Based on the location and surface of nearly 200 million buildingson the continent, we estimate the inter-building distance of almost sixthousand cities. Buildings' footprint data enables the construction of urbanform indicators to compare African cities' elongation, sprawl and emptiness. Weestablish the BASE model, where the mean distance between buildings is afunctional relation to the number of Buildings and their average Area, as wellas the Sprawl and the Elongation of its spatial arrangement. The mean distancebetween structures in cities -- our proxy for its energy demands related tomobility -- grows faster than the square root of its population, resulting fromthe combined impact of a sublinear growth in the number of buildings and asublinear increase in building size and sprawl. We show that when a citydoubles its population, it triples the energy demand related to commutes.

A scaling model for measuring the morphology of African cities: Implications for future energy needs