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This longitudinal study explores persistence in research productivity overtime. We examine the trajectories of the academic careers of 2,326 current fullprofessors in 14 STEMM disciplines, studying their lifetime biographicalhistories and publication histories. Every full professor is compared in termsof productivity classes (top, middle, bottom) with their peers at earliercareer stages. We used prestige-normalized productivity in which more weight isgiven to articles in high-impact than in low-impact journals, recognizing thehighly stratified nature of academic science. Our results show that membershipin top productivity classes is to a large extent determined by being in theseclasses earlier. Half of the current top productive full professors belonged totop productivity classes throughout their academic careers. Half of the topproductive assistant professors continued as top productive associateprofessors, and half of the top productive associate professors continued astop productive full professors (52.6% and 50.8%). Top-to-bottom andbottom-to-top transitions in productivity classes occurred marginally. Thecombination of biographical and demographic data with raw Scopus publicationdata from the past 50 years (N=1 million) made it possible to assign all fullprofessors retrospective to different productivity, promotion age, andpromotion speed classes. In logistic regression models, two powerful predictorsof belonging to the top productivity class for full professors were beinghighly productive as assistant professors and as associate professors(increasing the odds by 180% and 360%). Neither gender nor age (biological oracademic) emerged as statistically significant.

Once Highly Productive, Forever Highly Productive? Full Professors' Research Productivity from a Longitudinal Perspective