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Dam failures occur worldwide, often from factors including aging structures,extreme hydrologic loading, and design oversights related to the changingclimate. Understanding and mitigating risk to downstream inhabited areasrequire developing and improving low-cost high-fidelity tools, such asnumerical models, which allow emergency managers to predict the consequences ofdam failures better. Two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged hydraulic models canprovide valuable insights into the importance of breach parameters ordownstream flow characteristics, but historical studies considering historicfailures using real topographies are less common in literature. This studycompares Geoclaw, a 2D hydraulic model with adaptive mesh refinementcapabilities, to an industry-standard software HEC-RAS (Hydrologic EngineeringCenter - River Analysis System) using the 1976 Teton Dam failure as a casestudy. The suitability of Geoclaw for dam failure modeling is determined basedon its capability to resolve inundation extent and flood wave arrival times.This study performs sensitivity analyses of the HEC-RAS model to compare aninstantaneous dam breach assumption with a time-dependent breach formation forquantifying the model uncertainty. We find the 2D Geoclaw dam-break modelresults compare reasonably with historical gauge and field observational dataand HEC-RAS results. The model demonstrates stability and relatively lowcomputational costs. Our findings highlight opportunities for future work, withthe Geoclaw software performance supporting continued studies to evaluateperformance. Outcomes of this study will assist dam owners, floodplainmanagers, and emergency managers by providing an additional tool for estimatingthe impacts of dam failures to protect lives and infrastructure downstream.

Simulating the 1976 Teton Dam Failure using Geoclaw and HEC-RAS and comparing with Historical Observations