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Path probability prediction is essential to describe the dynamic birth anddeath of propagation paths, and build the accurate channel model forair-to-ground (A2G) communications. The occurrence probability of each path iscomplex and time-variant due to fast changeable altitudes of UAVs andscattering environments. Considering the A2G channels under urban scenarios,this paper presents three novel stochastic probability models for theline-of-sight (LoS) path, ground specular (GS) path, and building-scattering(BS) path, respectively. By analyzing the geometric stochastic information ofthree-dimensional (3D) scattering environments, the proposed models are derivedwith respect to the width, height, and distribution of buildings. The effect ofFresnel zone and altitudes of transceivers are also taken into account.Simulation results show that the proposed LoS path probability model has goodperformance at different frequencies and altitudes, and is also consistent withexisting models at the low or high altitude. Moreover, the proposed LoS andNLoS path probability models show good agreement with the ray-tracing (RT)simulation method.

Geometry-Based Stochastic Probability Models for the LoS and NLoS Paths of A2G Channels under Urban Scenario