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This paper uses predictive densities obtained via mixed causal-noncausalautoregressive models to evaluate the statistical sustainability of Brazilianinflation targeting system with the tolerance bounds. The probabilities give anindication of the short-term credibility of the targeting system withoutrequiring modelling people's beliefs. We employ receiver operatingcharacteristic curves to determine the optimal probability threshold from whichthe bank is predicted to be credible. We also investigate the added value ofincluding experts predictions of key macroeconomic variables.

A short term credibility index for central banks under inflation targeting: an application to Brazil