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We model voting behaviour in the multi-group setting of a two-tier votingsystem using sequences of de Finetti measures. Our model is defined by usingwhat we call the de Finetti representation of a probability measure describingvoting behaviour. The de Finetti measures describe the interaction betweenvoters and possible outside influences on them. We assume these sequencesconverge weakly to the Dirac measure in the origin, representing a tendencytoward weakening social cohesion as the population grows large. The resultingmodel covers a wide variety of behaviour, ranging from independent voting inthe limit under fast converge and a critical converge speed with its ownpattern of behaviour, to a subcritical converge speed which yields a model inline with empirical evidence of real-world voting data. These models can beused e.g. to study the problem of optimal voting weights in two-tier votingsystems.

Probabilistic Voting Models with Varying Speeds of Correlation Decay