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We present a three-stage probabilistic model for the progression of ChronicMyeloid Leukemia (CML), as manifested by the leukemic stem cells, progenitorcells and mature leukemic cells. This progression is captured through theprocess of cell division and cell mutation, with probabilities of occurrencebeing assigned to both of them. The key contributions of this study include,the determination of the expected number of the leukemic stem cells, progenitorcells, mature leukemic cells, as well as total number of these cells (in termsof probabilities, and contingent on the initial cell count), expected time toreach a threshold level of total and injurious leukemic cells, as well as thecritical time when the disease changes its phases, the probability ofextinction of CML, and the dynamics of CML evolution consequent to primarytherapy. Finally, the results obtained are demonstrated with numericalillustrations.

Progression, Detection and Remission: Evolution of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia using a three-stage probabilistic model