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The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirsthrough four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff and atmosphericmoisture convergence. Each of these fluxes is essential for human and ecosystemwell-being. However, predicting how the water cycle responds to changes invegetation cover, remains a challenge (Lawrence and Vandecar, 2015; Ellison etal., 2017; te Wierik et al., 2021). Recently, rainfall was shown to decreasedisproportionally with reduced forest transpiration following deforestation(Baudena et al., 2021). Here, combining these findings with the law of matterconservation, we show that in a sufficiently wet atmosphere foresttranspiration can control atmospheric moisture convergence such that increasedtranspiration enhances atmospheric moisture import. Conversely, in a drieratmosphere increased transpiration reduces atmospheric moisture convergence andrunoff. This previously unrecognized dichotomy can explain the seemingly randomobservations of runoff and soil moisture sometimes increasing and sometimesreducing in response to re-greening (e.g., Zheng et al., 2021). Evaluating thetransition between the two regimes is crucial both for characterizing the riskposed by deforestation as well as for motivating and guiding global ecosystemrestoration.

How transpiration by forests and other vegetation determines alternate moisture regimes