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COVID-19 vaccines have proven to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection.However, the dynamics of vaccine-induced immunological memory development andneutralizing antibodies generation are not fully understood, limiting vaccinedevelopment and vaccination regimen determination. Herein, we constructed amathematical model to characterize the vaccine-induced immune response based onfitting the viral infection and vaccination datasets. With the example ofCoronaVac, we revealed the association between vaccine-induced immunologicalmemory development and neutralizing antibody levels. The establishment of theintact immunological memory requires more than 6 months after the first andsecond doses, after that a booster shot can induce high levels neutralizingantibodies. By introducing the maximum viral load and recovery time after viralinfection, we quantitatively studied the protective effect of vaccines againstviral infection. Accordingly, we optimized the vaccination regimen, includingdose and vaccination timing, and predicted the effect of the fourth dose. Last,by combining the viral transmission model, we showed the suppression of virustransmission by vaccination, which may be instructive for the development ofpublic health policies.

Modeling COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunological memory development and its links to antibody level and infectiousness