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Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in terrestrialecosystems. However, significant differences in climate model projections forgiven scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to hinder detailedassessment. Here we show, using a traditional Koppen-Geiger bioclimateclassification system, that the latest CMIP6 Earth System Models actually agreevery well on the fraction of the global land-surface that will undergo asignificant change per degree of global warming. Data from historical andssp585 model runs are used to create bioclimate maps at various degrees ofglobal warming, and to investigate the performance of the ensemble mean whenclassifying climate data into discrete categories. Using a streamlined schemewith 13 classifications, global bioclimate classification maps at 2K and 4K ofglobal warming above a 1901-1931 reference period are presented. Theseprojections show large shifts in bioclimate distribution, with an almostexclusive change from colder, wetter bioclimates to hotter, dryer ones.Historical model run performance is assessed and examined by comparison withthe bioclimatic classifications derived from the observed climate over the sametime period. The fraction of the land experiencing a change in its bioclimaticclass as a function of global warming is estimated by combining the resultsfrom the individual models. Despite the discrete nature of the bioclimaticclassification scheme, we find only a weakly-saturating dependence of thisfraction on global warming which implies about 12 pct of land experiencing asignificant change in climate, per 1K increase in global mean temperaturebetween the global warming levels of 1 and 3K. Therefore, we estimate thatstabilising the climate at 1.5K rather than 2K of global warming, would saveover 7 million square kilometres of land from a major bioclimatic change.

Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections