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Global energy sector decarbonization efforts are contingent on technologychoices for energy production and end-use in emerging markets such as India,where air conditioning is expected to be a major driver for electricity demandgrowth. Here, we use an integrated demand-supply framework to quantify theimpacts of demand growth and temporal patterns on long-term electricity systemevolution. Under projected renewables and Li-ion storage cost declines, oursupply-demand modeling points to renewables contributing substantially (46-67%)to meet annual electricity demand in India by 2030. However, withoutappropriate policy measures to phase out existing coal generation, even suchrapid adoption of renewable energy coupled with one or more technologicallevers such as low-cost energy storage and demand-side measures such as settingaggressive AC efficiency standards and deploying distribution level storage,are insufficient to reduce annual CO2 emissions in 2050 vs. 2020 because of therelatively higher growth rate of projected electricity demand over this period.

Impact of demand growth on decarbonizing India's electricity sector and the role for energy storage