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Effort estimation models are a fundamental tool in software management, andused as a forecast for resources, constraints and costs associated to softwaredevelopment. For Free/Open Source Software (FOSS) projects, effort estimationis especially complex: professional developers work alongside occasional,volunteer developers, so the overall effort (in person-months) becomesnon-trivial to determine.  The objective of this work it to develop a simple effort estimation model forFOSS projects, based on the historic data of developers' effort. The model isfed with direct developer feedback to ensure its accuracy.  After extracting the personal development profiles of several thousands ofdevelopers from 6 large FOSS projects, we asked them to fill in a questionnaireto determine if they should be considered as full-time developers in theproject that they work in. Their feedback was used to fine-tune the value of aneffort threshold, above which developers can be considered as full-time.  With the help of the over 1,000 questionnaires received, we were able todetermine, for every project in our sample, the threshold of commits thatseparates full-time from non-full-time developers.%, and that minimizes thetype I and type II errors. We finally offer guidelines and a tool to apply ourmodel to FOSS projects that use a version control system.

Development Effort Estimation in Free/Open Source Software from Activity in Version Control Systems