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During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementingmobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship betweenhuman mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed amodel that enables quantitative estimations of the infection risk forindividual places and activities by using smartphone GPS data for the Tokyometropolitan area. The effective reproduction number is directly calculatedfrom the number of infectious social contacts defined by the square of thepopulation density at each location. The difference in the infection rate ofdaily activities is considered, where the `stay-out' activity, staying atsomeplace neither home nor workplace, is more than 28 times larger than otheractivities. Also, the contribution to the infection strongly depends onlocation. We imply that the effective reproduction number is sufficientlysuppressed if the highest-risk locations or activities are restricted. We alsodiscuss the effects of the Delta variant and vaccination.

Daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic: direct modelling from GPS data