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We analysed the distribution of the number of goals scored in each of the 51football matches played in the UEFA EURO 2020 final phase as well as thewaiting times between scores (also considering censored times). We found thatthe Poisson model fits the score data and the exponential distribution fitswaiting times quite well. Such a good fit could be considered somewhatcounterintuitive and unrealistic given the memoryless property of theexponential model. However, some peculiar features of this study have to beconsidered: the abilities of the teams were relatively homogeneous; the timespan was short; there was no distinction between home and away games; only thetotal number of goals scored in each game was considered. Although UEFA EURO2020 can certainly not be considered a "pure game of chance", this competitioncan be seen as an intriguing example of the pervasive real-world ubiquity ofthe concept of independence and its ability to encompass complex situations ina single, parsimonious model.

UEFA EURO 2020: a "pure game of chance"?