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A main determinant of the habitability of exoplanets is the presence ofstable liquid surface water. In an era of abundant possible targets, thepotential to find a habitable world remains a driving force in prioritization.We present here a data-forward method to investigate the likelihood of a stablehydrosphere on the timescales of the formation of life, 1 Gyr, and beyond. Asour primary application, we use this method to examine the potentialhydrospheres of TESS Objects of Interest 700 d, 256 b, and 203 b. We firstpresent our selection criteria, which is based on an implementation of theEarth Similarity Index, as well as the results of an initial investigation intothe desiccation of the targets, which reveals that TOI 203 b is almostcertainly desiccated based on TESS observations. We then describe thecharacterization of the remaining targets and their host stars from 2MASS,Gaia, and TESS data and the derivation of sampled probability distributions fortheir parameters. Following this, we describe our process of simulating thedesiccation of the targets hydrospheres using the Virtual Planet Simulator,VPLanet, with inputs directly linked to the previously derived probabilitydistributions. We find that 50.86 percent of the likely cases for TOI 700 d aredesiccated and no modeled cases for TOI 256 b are without water. In addition,we calculate the remaining water inventory for the targets, the percentage ofcases that are continuing to lose water, and the rate at which these cases arelosing water.

On The Hydrosphere Stability of TESS Targets: Applications to 700 d, 256 b, and 203 b