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The China Earthquake Administration (CEA) has launched an ambitiousnationwide earthquake early warning (EEW) system project currently underdevelopment, which will include approximately 15,000 seismic stations and bethe largest EEW system in the world. The new EEW system is planned to go onlineat the end of 2023. In approximately 50%, 30% and 20% of Chinese mainland, theinter-station distance will soon be smaller than 50 km, 25 km and 15 km,respectively. The expected effectiveness of this EEW system can be quantifiedvia the metric determined from the radius of the blind zone, which refers tothe area near the epicenter where there is insufficient time to issue a warningbefore the arrival of strong S- and surface waves. This study uses atheoretical network-based method together with Monte Carlo simulation to obtainthe spatial distribution of the blind zone radii and their associateduncertainties for the new seismic network based on its configuration. We findthat the densified new seismic network is expected to have excellent EEWperformance as the area covered by small blind zones with radius less than 30km increases dramatically from approximately 2% to 22%, that is by 2.4 millionkm2 inside Chinese mainland. We also find that every 1,000,000 RMB (about146,000 USD) invested to densify the planned network will lead to an arealincrease of 3,000 km2 of small blind zones. Continuing to increase the densityof stations in some key regions with blind zone radii ranging from 15 to 40 kmis still necessary to control the unexpected expansion of blind zones due topossible (and common) stations failure. Our work provides insights into theexpected performance of the upcoming EEW network in Chinese mainland, and ourproposed evaluation approach is broadly applicable for predicting theperformance of EEW systems during their planning, design, and implementationstages.

Estimating Earthquake Early Warning Effectiveness via Blind Zone Sizes: A Case Study of the Planned Seismic Network in Chinese Mainland