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We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use withendogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under whichdebris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growththat may render Earth's orbits unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome.We characterize the dynamics of objects in orbit under open access as well aswhen external costs -- the impact of an additional satellite launch on thecollision risk faced by all satellites -- are internalized, and we show thatKessler Syndrome can emerge in both cases. Finally, we show that once theeconomic incentives of satellite launching are modeled, for Kessler Syndrome toemerge, autocatalytic debris growth is essential. In our main calibration,Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184,with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalyticdebris growth parameters.

The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth