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China and India, the world's two most populous developing economies, are alsoamong the world's largest automotive markets and carbon emitters. To reducecarbon emissions from the passenger car sector, both countries have consideredvarious policy levers affecting fuel prices, car prices and fuel economy. Thisstudy estimates the responsiveness of new car buyers in China and India to suchpolicy levers and drivers including income. Furthermore, we estimate thepotential for rebound effect and the effectiveness of a feebate policy. Toaccomplish this, we developed a joint discrete-continuous model of car choiceand usage based on revealed preference survey data from approximately 8000 newcar buyers from India and China who purchased cars in 2016-17. Conditional onbuying a new car, the fuel consumption in both markets is found to berelatively unresponsive to fuel price and income, with magnitudes of elasticityestimates ranging from 0.12 to 0.15. For both markets, the mean segment-leveldirect elasticities of fuel consumption relative to car price and fuel economyrange from 0.57 to 0.65. The rebound effect on fuel savings due to cost-freefuel economy improvement is found to be 17.1% for India and 18.8% for China. Arevenue-neutral feebate policy, with average rebates and fees of up to around15% of the retail price, resulted in fuel savings of around 0.7% for bothmarkets. While the feebate policy's rebound effect is low - 7.3% for India and1.6% for China - it does not appear to be an effective fuel conservationpolicy.

Fuel consumption elasticities, rebound effect and feebate effectiveness in the Indian and Chinese new car markets