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Forking-based development has made it easier and straightforward fordevelopers to contribute to open-source software (OSS). Developers can fork anexisting project and add changes in their local version without interruptingthe development process in the main project. Despite the efficiency of OSS,more than 80% of the projects are not sustainable. Identifying the elementsrelated to OSS success can enlighten developers regarding the sustainability ofa project. In our study, we explore whether or not the inefficiencies whicharise due to forking-based development like redundant development, fragmentedcommunities, lack of modularity, etc. have any relation to the outcome of aproject in terms of sustainability. We formulate eight metrics to quantifyattributes for projects in the ASFI dataset. To find the correlation betweenthe metrics and the success of a project, we built a logistic regression modelto metrics with significant p-values and performed backward stepwise regressionanalysis, using the stepAIC function in R to cross-check our findings. Thefindings show that modularity, centralized management index, and hard forks areconsequential for the success of a project. Developers can use the outcomes ofour research to plan and structure their projects to increase the probabilityof their success.

Forking Around: Correlation of forking practices with the success of a project