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Detections of mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus gave rise to new packages ofinterventions. Among them, international travel restrictions have been one ofthe fastest and most visible responses to limit the spread of the variants.While inducing large economic losses, the epidemiological consequences of suchtravel restrictions are highly uncertain. They may be poorly effective when thenew highly transmissible strain of the virus already circulates in manyregions. Assessing the effectiveness of travel bans is difficult given thepaucity of data on daily cross-border mobility and on existing variantcirculation. The question is topical and timely as the new omicron variant --classified as a variant of concern by WHO -- has been detected in SouthernAfrica, and perceived as (potentially) more contagious than previous strains.In this study, we develop a multi-country compartmental model of the SIR type.We use it to simulate the spread of a new variant across European countries,and to assess the effectiveness of unilateral and multilateral travel bans.

Are Travel Bans the Answer to Stopping the Spread of COVID-19 Variants? Lessons from a Multi-Country SIR Model