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We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adultpopulation of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects(n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks beforeprotest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the othersubjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomizedinformational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, andestimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability ofparticipation using a control function approach. Participation decisions arefound to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of beliefcauses a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation inthe average subject.

Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest