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While the size of China's mobile population continues to expand, thefertility rate is significantly lower than the stable generation replacementlevel of the population, and the structural imbalance of human resource supplyhas attracted widespread attention. This paper uses LPM and Probit models toestimate the impact of house prices on the fertility intentions of the mobilepopulation based on data from the 2018 National Mobile Population DynamicsMonitoring Survey. The lagged land sales price is used as an instrumentalvariable of house price to mitigate the potential endogeneity problem. Theresults show that for every 100\% increase in the ratio of house price tohousehold income of mobile population, the fertility intention of the femalemobile population of working age at the inflow location will decrease by4.42\%, and the marginal effect of relative house price on labor forcefertility intention is EXP(-0.222); the sensitivity of mobile populationfertility intention to house price is affected by the moderating effect ofinfrastructure construction at the inflow location. The willingness to havechildren in the inflow area is higher for female migrants of working age withlower age, smaller family size and higher education. Based on the abovefindings, the study attempts to provide a new practical perspective for themainline institutional change and balanced economic development in China'seconomic transition phase.

Urban Housing Prices and Migration's Fertility Intentions: Based on the 2018 China Migrants' Dynamic Survey