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How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climatevariability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of theradiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of thesurface air temperature at different latitudes of the Northern and SouthernHemispheres on various time intervals? Such contributions to trends areestimated here from observation data with the simplest empirical models.Trivariate autoregressive models are fitted to the data since the 19th centuryand used to assess the impact of the anthropogenic forcing together withdifferent natural climate modes including Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,El-Nino / Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, PacificDecadal Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation. For relatively short intervalsof the length of two or three decades, we note considerable contributions ofthe climate variability modes which are comparable to the contributions of thegreenhouse gases and even exceed the latter. For longer intervals of about halfa century and greater, the contributions of greenhouse gases dominate at alllatitudes as follows from the present analysis of data for polar, middle andtropical regions.

Empirical estimation of anthropogenic and natural contributions to surface air temperature trends at different latitudes