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Since the onset of the the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries across the worldhave implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain thespread of virus, as well as economic support policies (ESPs) to save theireconomies. The pandemic and the associated NPIs have triggered unprecedentedwaves of economic shocks to the financial markets, including the foreignexchange (FX) markets. Although there are some studies exploring the impact ofthe NPIs and ESPs on FX markets, the relative impact of individual NPIs or ESPshas not been studied in a combined framework. In this work, we investigate therelative impact of NPIs and ESPs with Explainable AI (XAI) techniques.Experiments over exchange rate data of G10 currencies during the period fromJanuary 1, 2020 to January 13, 2021 suggest strong impacts on exchange ratemarkets by all measures of the strict lockdown, such as stay at homerequirements, workplace closing, international travel control, and restrictionson internal movement. Yet, the impact of individual NPI and ESP can vary acrossdifferent currencies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work thatuses XAI techniques to study the relative impact of NPIs and ESPs on the FXmarket. The derived insights can guide governments and policymakers to makeinformed decisions when facing with the ongoing pandemic and a similarsituation in the near future.

An Investigation of the Impact of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical  Interventions and Economic Support Policies on Foreign Exchange Markets with  Explainable AI Techniques